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Study and Development of Short-term Load Forecasting using Stochastic

Publication Date : 19/11/2015

Author(s) :

Engr. Prof. Johnathan Uhaa Agber , Andrew Abeega Aboityo , Onah,C.O.

Volume/Issue :
Volume 2
Issue 9
(11 - 2015)

Abstract :

Load forecasting has been an important process in Electrical Engineering since the early 20th century. For the purpose of Economic load dispatch and Power system planning, Short-term load forecasting is essential. In addition, participation in the electricity market requires the utilities to forecast their loads accurately. The present work involves development of Short Term Load Forecasting Model Using Time series Analysis for Makurdi load demand. Having 3 months load data October-December, 2014 work is carried out for model development using October-November load. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is developed using the October-November,2014 load data and tested using the December,2014 data. The model adequacy was tested using Jarque-Bera Test of Normality of Residuals, Serial Correlation Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test and Heteroskedasticity Test of ARCH Effect in the residuals. The accuracy of the forecasts is checked using the Maximum absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the forecasts. Weather variables are not considered.

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Study and Development of Short-term Load Forecasting using Stochastic

September 30, 2015